Silicon Analysts Weekly · Issue #7 · week of 2026-07-13 → 2026-07-20
SK Hynix HBM3E now volume shipping to NVIDIA Blackwell & AMD MI355X; HBM4 enters qual
Silicon Analysts Weekly for the week of 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-20: SK Hynix HBM3E now volume shipping to NVIDIA Blackwell & AMD MI355X; HBM4 enters qual. A sourced, provenance-marked briefing on AI-chip supply-chain and pricing movements — HBM spot prices, wafer pricing, foundry and CoWoS capacity, per-chip bill-of-materials cost, and HBM qualification status — derived from public data and human-reviewed. Part of the Silicon Analysts semiconductor data layer.
The take
SK Hynix is volume shipping HBM3E to both NVIDIA Blackwell and AMD MI355X simultaneously — confirming HBM3E as the dominant stack in production AI systems right now. In parallel, both SK Hynix and Micron have HBM4 in qualification for AMD MI400, so the next transition is already underway. HBM pricing is what readers are watching most closely this week.
What moved this week
SK Hynix HBM bit share — changed — 50–55% vs ~55–58% (readings range 50–62%) (source)
SK Hynix HBM3 HBM spot price — changed — ~$200/stack (24GB) or ~$8.33/GB, but these are self-described educational estimates only vs ~$200/stack (source)
AMD CoWoS customer allocation — up — ~11% vs ~11% of CoWoS allocation; ~105,000 wafers (80,000 at TSMC for MI355/MI400) in 2026 (source)
NVIDIA CoWoS customer allocation — changed — ~60% (~595k wafers) vs 2026 ~60% (~595k–630k wafers) (source)
SK Hynix HBM4 HBM spot price — changed — ~$500/stack (est.) vs 2026 mid-$500 per stack (source)
SK Hynix HBM3E HBM spot price — changed — ~$300/stack (≈$8.33/GB for 36GB HBM3E), per Silicon Analysts estimates vs 2026 ~$10/GB (source)
Supply-chain & pricing signals
US Shifts Tariff Strategy Via Section 301; Global Chip Supply Faces Renewed Trade Risk — Trump administration prepares to replace struck-down Section 122 tariffs with durable Section 301 tariffs by July 24 deadline, targeting China, Brazil, and other trading partners. Semiconductor supply chains face renewed cost and logistics uncertainty; potential 25%+ tariffs on non-US chipmaking equipment and materials will force supply chain restructuring. (Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette) · _In our data:_ supply chain storyline
ASML China Revenue to Hit 20% of FY2026 Amid US Export Control Pressure — ASML's China exposure faces dual headwinds: declining as percentage of revenue (from historical highs) while facing tightening US export controls on advanced lithography tools. This fragmentation of equipment supply chains will force non-US chipmakers to invest in alternative suppliers or degraded-node manufacturing. (CNBC) · _In our data:_ foundry economics storyline
Data Center Power Consumption Expected to Hit 1,000+ TWh by 2026—Threatens Grid Stability — AI infrastructure power demand reaching scale of mid-sized nation's annual consumption creates utility cost inflation and grid reliability constraints. Energy costs are becoming material to semiconductor compute economics, pressuring margins and driving spintronics R&D investments as electron-movement alternatives. (CNBC) · _In our data:_ supply chain storyline
China's Local AI Chip Strategy Threatens AMD GPU Demand Growth — China's ban on H200 orders and promotion of domestic AI chips (Kimi K3) reduces addressable market for US GPU vendors like AMD. This geopolitical decoupling pressures hardware demand patterns and forces recalibration of AI chip market forecasts in the world's second-largest tech economy. (Yahoo Finance) · _In our data:_ AMD storyline
CXMT IPO Demand Weak Amid Chip Stock Selloff; Chinese DRAM Challenger Struggles — CXMT's $8.6B Shanghai IPO sees only 569x oversubscription vs. 5,000x+ for comparable biotech IPOs, signaling institutional skepticism toward Chinese memory chipmakers. As the world's 4th-largest DRAM producer, weak IPO reception constrains capital for capacity expansion and threatens long-term competitive positioning against Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. (Reuters) · _In our data:_ SK Hynix — 5 developments tracked this quarter · SK Hynix storyline
TSMC Q2 Net Profit Reaches Record $21.99B; CoWoS Packaging Demand Strong — Sustained strength in CoWoS advanced packaging for AI chips indicates supply-constrained high-margin packaging segment. TSMC's nine-quarter double-digit growth validates AI infrastructure investment cycle durability and pricing power. (The Economic Times) · _In our data:_ TSMC — 2 developments tracked this quarter · TSMC storyline · CoWoS packaging capacity · AI accelerator manufacturing cost
HBM watch
SK Hynix × NVIDIA Blackwell (HBM3E): now Volume shipping — NVIDIA increased HBM3E orders as Blackwell GPU demand remains strong; SK Hynix flagged HBM3E as its primary production focus for at least the first half of 2026. (source · timeline)
SK Hynix × AMD MI355X (HBM3E): now Volume shipping — AMD's official MI355X platform brochure lists HBM3E as the shipping memory specification at 2.3 TB capacity and 8 TB/s per GPU. (source · timeline)
SK Hynix × AMD MI400 (HBM4): now In qualification — SK Hynix HBM4 sampling across 2025–2026; AMD MI400 series listed as projected target customer at development/early sampling stage. (source · timeline)
Micron × AMD MI400 (HBM4): now In qualification — Micron HBM4 in development; AMD MI400 series listed as projected target customer at development/early sampling stage. (source · timeline)
This week's analysis
China's AI Chip Bifurcation: How Export Controls Are Accelerating a Parallel Semiconductor Ecosystem — US export controls have not slowed China's semiconductor ambitions — they have restructured them. This analysis examines the localization trajectory, the hard bottlenecks that remain, and what a bifurcated AI chip ecosystem means for global supply chains by 2030.
Export Controls, Capex Reallocation, and the Rewiring of the Allied Supply Chain — US export controls on advanced semiconductors are forcing a structural reallocation of capex across the allied supply chain, reshaping where fabs get built, how memory is sourced, and how procurement teams manage escalating geopolitical risk. This analysis breaks down the mechanics and strategic implications.
ASML EUV Shipments 2026: Memory Fab Adoption, High-NA Ramp, and What the Guidance Hike Really Signals — ASML is targeting 60+ EUV shipments in 2026—a ~25% increase over 2025—driven by memory fab EUV adoption and AI chip demand. This analysis unpacks what the guidance revision signals for equipment lead times, capacity allocation, and the broader lithography supply chain.
Capex Geography: Why the US/Japan/Korea Fab Race Is More About Risk Arbitrage Than Efficiency — A rigorous analysis of how geopolitical fab allocation is reshaping semiconductor capital spending across the US, Japan, and South Korea — and what the efficiency gap between regions means for procurement and supply-chain strategy.
AI engines are citing
Tool spotlight
HBM Market Analysis — Spot prices, supplier share, qualification status, and forecasts.
Sources this week
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Sourced public intelligence, not insider data; status changes are human-reviewed before publication. Full timelines on the HBM Qualification Tracker.