Silicon Analysts

Silicon Analysts Forecast Track Record

Our own semiconductor projections — HBM contract pricing, DDR4 spot pricing and CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity — frozen monthly into write-once vintage rows and graded against realized values once each target period matures. Vintages cannot be edited or backfilled, so the scorecard shows what we actually said at the time, including the misses. Machine-readable at /api/v1/track-record and via the get_track_record MCP tool.

Forecast Track Record

Every month, on the 2nd, our live scenario models' bear / base / bull projections are frozen into write-once vintage rows. A projection changed before it was frozen is gone — the ledger cannot be backfilled. When a target period matures, the row is graded against published benchmark observations and the result stays on the record: correct, partial or incorrect, with the signed error.

Write-once · no backfill · misses stay on the page
40
frozen vintage rows
2
monthly vintages since 2026-07
0
graded
40
awaiting maturity — next 2026-09-30 (24 have no mapped benchmark — see methodology)

No row has matured yet — the record began in 2026-07 and the earliest target period ends 2026-09-30. Grading happens at the monthly freeze run after maturity. Until then this page shows exactly what was frozen, when — which is the point.

HBM Price Scenario Model

hbm-pricing-model · v1.0

Projects HBM3E and HBM4 contract pricing per GB through Q4 2027, driven by AI chip shipment growth, supplier capacity additions, and generational transition timing.

SeriesScenarioTarget periodPredicted (band)UnitVintageStatus
HBM3E contract pricebaseQ3 20269.5 (8–11)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebearQ3 20267 (5.5–9)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebullQ3 202617 (14–20)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebaseQ4 20269 (7.5–10.5)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-12-31
HBM3E contract pricebearQ4 20266 (4.5–8)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebaseQ4 202613 (11–15)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebearQ4 202611 (9–13)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebullQ4 202615.5 (13–18)USD/GB2026-08matures 2026-12-31
HBM3E contract pricebaseQ3 20269.5 (8–11)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebearQ3 20267 (5.5–9)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebullQ3 202617 (14–20)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-09-30
HBM3E contract pricebaseQ4 20269 (7.5–10.5)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-12-31
HBM3E contract pricebearQ4 20266 (4.5–8)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebaseQ4 202613 (11–15)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebearQ4 202611 (9–13)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-12-31
HBM4 contract pricebullQ4 202615.5 (13–18)USD/GB2026-07matures 2026-12-31

DDR4 Price Scenario Model

dram-ddr4-model · v1.0

Projects DDR4 8Gb spot and contract pricing 2026–2027, driven by the EOL production decline curve, residual industrial/automotive demand, and DDR5 substitution rates.

SeriesScenarioTarget periodPredicted (band)UnitVintageStatus
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebaseQ3 20266.5 (5–8.5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebearQ3 20263.5 (2.5–5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebullQ3 202611 (8–14)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebaseQ4 20266 (4.5–8)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-12-31
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebearQ4 20263 (2–4.5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-12-31
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebullQ4 202610 (7–13)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-08matures 2026-12-31
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebaseQ3 20266.5 (5–8.5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebearQ3 20263.5 (2.5–5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebullQ3 202611 (8–14)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-09-30
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebaseQ4 20266 (4.5–8)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-12-31
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebearQ4 20263 (2–4.5)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-12-31
DDR4 8Gb spot pricebullQ4 202610 (7–13)USD (DDR4 8Gb)2026-07matures 2026-12-31

CoWoS Capacity Expansion Model

cowos-capacity-model · v1.0

Projects TSMC CoWoS monthly capacity through end 2027, driven by TSMC capex commitment, packaging tool lead times, and AI chip demand from hyperscalers.

SeriesScenarioTarget periodPredicted (band)UnitVintageStatus
CoWoS total capacitybaseEnd 2026106,000 (95,000–120,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybearEnd 202688,000 (80,000–98,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybullEnd 2026128,000 (115,000–142,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybaseEnd 2027155,000 (135,000–175,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2027-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybearEnd 2027110,000 (95,000–125,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2027-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybullEnd 2027200,000 (175,000–225,000)wafers/month2026-08matures 2027-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybaseEnd 2026106,000 (95,000–120,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybearEnd 202688,000 (80,000–98,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybullEnd 2026128,000 (115,000–142,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2026-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybaseEnd 2027155,000 (135,000–175,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2027-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybearEnd 2027110,000 (95,000–125,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2027-12-31
CoWoS total capacitybullEnd 2027200,000 (175,000–225,000)wafers/month2026-07matures 2027-12-31

Methodology

  • Freeze scope: quarterly and year-end target periods only, future periods only, cost and supply metrics only — never securities price targets. N2/2nm series are excluded at the freeze layer.
  • Write-once: a database trigger rejects any edit to a frozen prediction; grading fields can be set exactly once. Corrections to our live models never rewrite a frozen vintage.
  • Grading: the realized value is the median of published benchmark observations in the target quarter. Inside the frozen low–high band = correct; within 30% of the mid = partial; beyond = incorrect. Series without a mapped benchmark (CoWoS total capacity, DDR4 8Gb today) stay ungraded rather than being scored against a proxy.
  • Machine-readable: /api/v1/track-record (JSON, public, full fidelity) and the get_track_record MCP tool.

Looking for what other organizations predicted? Third-party forecast vintages (TrendForce, WSTS, company guidance) are archived — not graded — at /data/forecast-vintages.

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