What Changed — Semiconductor Data Movements
Recent movements in semiconductor wafer pricing, AI accelerator manufacturing cost, foundry gross margins, foundry capacity, and NRE/mask-set cost, derived daily from an append-only data ledger. Each movement shows direction, magnitude, the two dates compared, and a confidence tier. Public sources only — no proprietary or insider data.
What Changed in Semiconductor Data
Recent movements across wafer pricing, AI accelerator cost, foundry margins, capacity, and NRE — tracked daily from our public-data ledger, every figure with provenance.
Comparing Sep 30, 2026 vs Sep 23, 2026 (7 days of history) ·
Memory spot pricing3
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| DDR5 16GB SPOT spot $/unit (consensus low) | $54.33/chip → $37.50/chip | ▼ -31% |
| DDR5 16GB SPOT spot $/unit (consensus high) | $54.33/chip → $57.67/chip | ▲ +6.1% |
| DDR5 16GB SPOT spot $/unit | $54.33/chip → $56.93/chip | ▲ +4.8% |
HBM market share1
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung HBM HBM bit share | 33% → 25% | ▼ -8pp |
Wafer pricing1
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC N5 wafer price (avg) | $18,500 → $20,000 | ▲ +8.1% |
GPU cloud rental pricing3
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| RUNPOD H200 on-demand $/GPU-hr | $3.59/GPU-hr → $4.59/GPU-hr | ▲ +27.9% |
| AWS H100 SXM5 on-demand $/GPU-hr | $6.88/GPU-hr → $6.04/GPU-hr | ▼ -12.3% |
| COREWEAVE B200 spot $/GPU-hr | $4.36/GPU-hr → $4.26/GPU-hr | ▼ -2.3% |
LLM API pricing4
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| GOOGLE GEMINI 3 1 PRO PREVIEW input $/Mtok (consensus low) | $1.00/Mtok → $1.35/Mtok | ▲ +35% |
| GOOGLE GEMINI 3 1 PRO PREVIEW input $/Mtok (consensus high) | $2.00/Mtok → $1.35/Mtok | ▼ -32.5% |
| GOOGLE GEMINI 3 1 PRO PREVIEW output $/Mtok | $9.00/Mtok → $6.75/Mtok | ▼ -25% |
| GOOGLE GEMINI 3 1 PRO PREVIEW input $/Mtok | $1.50/Mtok → $1.35/Mtok | ▼ -10% |
Fab capacity & utilization5
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC N5 node ramp | 150 kwspm → 180 kwspm | ▲ +20% |
| TSMC N3 node ramp | 150 kwspm → 165 kwspm | ▲ +10% |
| TSMC CoWoS CoWoS capacity | 120 kwspm → 130 kwspm | ▲ +8.3% |
| TSMC CoWoS CoWoS capacity | 180 kwspm → 170 kwspm | ▼ -5.6% |
| TSMC N3 node ramp | 175 kwspm → 180 kwspm | ▲ +2.9% |
Foundry capacity1
View dataset →| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC N3 annual wafer starts | 2,160,000 wafers_per_year → 2,040,000 wafers_per_year | ▼ -5.6% |
Gross margins2
| Metric | Change | Move |
|---|---|---|
| IOT EDGE gross margin | 45% → 53.5% | ▲ +8.5pp |
| MAINSTREAM CPU gross margin | 47% → 53% | ▲ +6pp |
Download the full historical ledger (Pro)
Every figure here is a dated, append-only series. Get the complete history as CSV/JSONL for backtesting and models — join the list and we'll reach out.
Market intelligence behind the moves
All market intelligence →Samsung HBM4 Yield Climbs to ~80%, Wafer Starts Up 40% as HBM4 Pricing Projected +65%
Yield: <60% → ~80% (+20pp); Capacity: Samsung HBM wafer starts +40% (180k→250k wpm), HBM4-family mix 40%→80%; Price: HBM4 ASP +65% YoY; Share shift: Samsung 21%→33%, SK hynix 58%→50% (Counterpoint, Q1→Q2)
HBM3E Contract Prices Surge ~20% for 2026; Server DRAM Spikes 90-95% QoQ as Supply Crunch Intensifies
HBM3E 2026 contract price: ~+20% full-year vs. prior contracts (Samsung, SK Hynix per TrendForce); Server DRAM contract price QoQ: +90–95% Q1 2026, +58–63% Q2 2026, +13–18% Q3 2026 (TrendForce); DDR4 commodity spot: +249% Nov 2025 to Aug 2026 ($12.18 → $42.50). Est. BOM impact on H200/B200-class GPU: HBM cost line up ~+20% YoY on contracted volumes.
SK Hynix Breaks Ground on Indiana HBM Fab: $4B US Domestic Capacity Confirmed
CapEx commitment: ~$4B USD; production ramp targeted 2029; near-term (2026–2028) HBM supply capacity unchanged.
SK Hynix Breaks Ground on $4B+ Indiana HBM4E Packaging Facility; HBM Shortage Forecast Through 2030
Capacity: +U.S. HBM4E packaging base online Q3 2029 (net-new domestic capacity); CapEx committed: >$4B; Supply gap: HBM shortage characterized as persisting through end-2030 per SK Hynix CEO public statement.
Recent corrections
Full changelog →Methodology
Every day we freeze the canonical semiconductor cost/pricing data into an append-only ledger. This page compares the most recent snapshot against the closest one ~7 days earlier and surfaces the metrics that moved past a per-dataset significance threshold (filtering out rounding noise).
Each movement shows direction, magnitude (percent for value metrics, percentage-points for rate metrics), the two dates compared, and a confidence tier. The trend column sketches each metric's full ledger history (up to ~90 days). The history is young — the ledger began 2026-06-06, and some domains are tracked from later dates — so a 30-day window automatically clamps to the data available and labels the real lookback, and per-row trends can start on different dates. Underlying values are synthesized from public sources only.
Programmatic access: /api/v1/changes and the get_recent_changes MCP tool. For data provenance and terms, see Terms & Data Provenance.
See current wafer pricing →
300mm wafer prices by node and foundry, with per-row provenance and price ranges.