CoWoS Q3 alloc hits 850K wafers; Broadcom cut to 200K
Silicon Analysts Weekly for the week of 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-07: CoWoS Q3 alloc hits 850K wafers; Broadcom cut to 200K. A sourced, provenance-marked briefing on AI-chip supply-chain and pricing movements — HBM spot prices, wafer pricing, foundry and CoWoS capacity, per-chip bill-of-materials cost, and HBM qualification status — derived from public data and human-reviewed. Part of the Silicon Analysts semiconductor data layer.
The take
NVIDIA's CoWoS allocation reaching 800,000–850,000 wafers in Q3 2026 — roughly 60% of total capacity — leaves little room for anyone else, as Broadcom's allocation was trimmed from ~240,000 to 200,000 wafers. With Micron's entire 2026 HBM supply sold out, readers focused on HBM pricing should check the HBM Analysis page.
What moved this week
NVIDIA CoWoS customer allocation — ▲ now 2026-Q3 800,000–850,000 wafers (~60% of CoWoS allocation) (was 2026 ~60% of TSMC's CoWoS capacity (~595,000–630,000 wafers)) (source)
TSMC CoWoS capacity — now 2026-Q4 ~120,000–130,000 wafers/month (central ~125K) (was ~80,000–140,000 wafers per month by end-2025/2026, growing at ~80% CAGR (2022–2027)…) (source)
SK Hynix HBM bit share — now ~50–70% (Goldman Sachs/analyst estimates ~50%+; Counterpoint reports ~70%) (was ~62% (range: >50% to 70%)) (source)
TSMC SoIC CoWoS capacity — now null roughly doubling year on year from a few thousand wafers a month in 2024 (was SoIC capacity ~4k wpm in 2024 growing to ~8k wpm in 2025, implying ~90% CAGR 2022–2027) (source)
Micron HBM pct locked — now sold out entire 2026 supply (was 2026-Q4 sold out through 2026) (source)
Supply-chain & pricing signals
US-China Export Controls on Advanced Materials and Semiconductors Reshape Global Supply Chain Reshoring — Expanded US export controls on advanced chips and materials coupled with China's rare-earth/critical mineral export licensing create supply chain bifurcation and friend-shoring acceleration. Risk to $6.5T global manufacturing if China escalates rare-earth export restrictions, pressuring semiconductor equipment and materials supply. (Global Trade Magazine / Egypt Oil & Gas) · _In our data:_ supply chain storyline
Taiwan Launches Silicon Photonics Alliance with TSMC and 30 Firms to Lead CPO Supply Chain — Taiwan's coordinated CPO/silicon photonics push addresses critical AI data-center power and bandwidth bottlenecks, with 30-50% power reduction potential. Strategic alliance consolidates Taiwan's packaging leadership and counters Nvidia's $4B photonics investment, reshaping advanced packaging competition. (Herald Corp / BigGo Finance) · _In our data:_ TSMC — 7 developments tracked this quarter · TSMC storyline
AMD-Cisco-HUMAIN partnership deploys 250MW AI infrastructure in Saudi Arabia — AMD secures sovereign AI infrastructure demand outside North America via Saudi Arabia deployment (scaling to 1GW by decade-end), diversifying GPU customer base and reducing reliance on US cloud providers. This geopolitically-driven deal validates AMD's MI355X competitiveness and signals emerging markets' autonomous AI spending appetite. (Simplify) · _In our data:_ AMD — 3 developments tracked this quarter · AMD storyline
SK Hynix GDDR Memory Distributors: How the Channel Actually Works — A complete guide to SK Hynix GDDR memory distribution — how the channel is structured, who the major distributors are, what GDDR6 and GDDR7 look like in the market, and what procurement teams need to know.
tsmc-n3 min — was 20000 → now 18000 (Extraction restatement, not market movement: from 2026-08-02 to 2026-08-23 the published low was flattened to the $20,000 point consensus by)
tsmc-n3 max — was 20000 → now 27000 (Extraction restatement, not market movement: from 2026-08-02 to 2026-08-23 the published high was flattened to the $20,000 point consensus b)
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