The live ledger of AI-chip economics
A provenance-backed data platform for semiconductor & AI-accelerator economics — wafer pricing, HBM, packaging, fabs, and foundry allocation. Every number dated and sourced, every dataset queryable by humans and AI agents alike.
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Chip Price Calculator
Wafer cost, yield modeling, packaging economics, and margin analysis across process nodes from 180nm to 2nm.
HBM Market Analysis
HBM market dynamics — accelerator specs, vendor market share, qualification status, supply chain signals, and revenue forecasts.
Fab Explorer
Explore 64 semiconductor fabs from TSMC, Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries, SMIC, UMC, and more. Filter by node, country, and capacity.
Market Data
Historical time series for wafer pricing, HBM/DRAM costs, fab utilization, CoWoS capacity, and NRE trends — 329 sourced data points across 16 datasets.
Cost Bridge Chart
Side-by-side manufacturing cost comparison across logic die, HBM memory, packaging, and assembly for 18 AI accelerators.
Packaging Model
Compare CoWoS-S, CoWoS-L, EMIB, SoIC, and flip-chip architectures with HBM stack cost analysis.
AI Hardware Bottleneck Board
Eight AI hardware bottlenecks — CoWoS, HBM, ABF substrates, T-glass, InP lasers — judged weekly from company filings, with graded evidence and customer deposits. The supply-chain chokepoint map sits below it.
Price / Performance Frontier
Compare AI accelerators on cost, throughput, training time, and TCO — H100, B200, MI300X, TPU v5p, and more.
Allocation Dashboard
Track foundry allocation status, CoWoS packaging availability, and HBM supply signals across 14 process nodes from TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and more.
Tapeout Decision Workspace
Guided 5-step workflow for fabless teams evaluating tapeout decisions — chip definition, foundry selection, cost modeling, competitive benchmarking, and go/no-go summary.
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Latest Analysis & Market Intelligence
Deep-dive reports and daily AI-detected supply-chain signals — each sourced and dated. Public sources only.
TrendForce Lifts 2027 HBM ASP Forecast to +121%; HBM4 Stack Seen Doubling to ~$1,300
TrendForce, in a Sept. 29 report, raised its 2027 HBM blended average selling price forecast to a 121% year-on-year increase, citing persistent supply shortage, a rising mix of HBM4 and expanded HBM4E output in 2H27. Industry estimates cited by Seoul Economic Daily put a 12-high 36GB HBM4 stack at roughly $1,300 next year versus about $600 this year, while Micron stated on its FQ4 call that it has already committed more than 75% of FY2027 shipment volume at prices well above 2026 levels.
HBM blended ASP: +121% YoY in 2027; 12-Hi 36GB HBM4 stack: ~$600 → ~$1,300 (+~117%); HBM share of industry DRAM wafer capacity: ~20% → ~30% by 2027
Samsung HBM4 Yield Climbs to ~80%, Wafer Starts Up 40% as HBM4 Pricing Projected +65%
Samsung's HBM4 mass-production yield has risen from below 60% at ramp start to roughly 80%, enabling a plan to roughly double HBM4/HBM4E output next year and lift HBM wafer input about 40% from 180,000 to 250,000 wafers per month, with the HBM4-family share of that input rising from 40% to 80%. Despite the ramp from Samsung, SK hynix (M15X wafer input scaling from ~10k to 80k/month) and Micron, the market still models 2027 HBM demand growth of 56% against supply growth of 50%, with HBM4 contract prices projected roughly 65% above this year's levels.
Yield: <60% → ~80% (+20pp); Capacity: Samsung HBM wafer starts +40% (180k→250k wpm), HBM4-family mix 40%→80%; Price: HBM4 ASP +65% YoY; Share shift: Samsung 21%→33%, SK hynix 58%→50% (Counterpoint, Q1→Q2)
HBM3E Contract Prices Surge ~20% for 2026; Server DRAM Spikes 90-95% QoQ as Supply Crunch Intensifies
Samsung and SK Hynix raised HBM3E 2026 contract prices by approximately 20% versus prior-year agreements, according to TrendForce, while broader server DRAM contract prices surged 90–95% QoQ in Q1 2026 and 58–63% QoQ in Q2 2026 before moderating to 13–18% in Q3. HBM4 mass production began ramping in H1 2026 across all three major suppliers, but HBM4 pricing is tracking upward alongside HBM3E, offering no near-term relief for AI accelerator BOM costs.
HBM3E 2026 contract price: ~+20% full-year vs. prior contracts (Samsung, SK Hynix per TrendForce); Server DRAM contract price QoQ: +90–95% Q1 2026, +58–63% Q2 2026, +13–18% Q3 2026 (TrendForce); DDR4 commodity spot: +249% Nov 2025 to Aug 2026 ($12.18 → $42.50). Est. BOM impact on H200/B200-class GPU: HBM cost line up ~+20% YoY on contracted volumes.
The Lithography Chokepoint: ASML EUV Shipment Ramp, High-NA Economics, and the Geopolitical Reordering of Foundry Equipment Allocation
ASML's 2026 EUV shipment guidance of 60+ units signals a ~25% ramp driven by memory fab adoption and AI chip demand — but export restrictions, a Europe demand vacuum, and High-NA transition economics are quietly reshaping who gets tools, when, and at what cost.
ASML's 2026 EUV guidance revision is less about volume and more about a structural shift in who is buying — memory fabs and non-China foundries are absorbing the demand displacement created by export controls. High-NA adoption is expanding ASP even as unit growth remains measured. The absence of any EUV demand from European fabs in 2026 is the most underappreciated signal in the current equipment cycle.
Who Is Prepaying for AI Chips? The AI Hardware Bottleneck Map, October 2026
The clearest sign of a supply squeeze is money paid in advance. In the second quarter of 2026, customer deposits rose 56% at TSMC and at Samsung, and Micron's rose about 23-fold the quarter after. SK hynix's barely moved. We graded eight AI hardware bottlenecks against filings and earnings calls, and three widely repeated claims did not survive the check.
Customers do not prepay for capacity they expect to get anyway. The deposit lines in suppliers' own balance sheets are the hardest public evidence of an allocation fight, and in mid-2026 they jumped at TSMC, Samsung and Micron at the same time. The same filings also retire three claims that circulate as fact: a 30% ABF film price hike that the supplier denied, a two-year T-glass delay that appears in no company document, and a "CoWoS sold out through 2026" line that TSMC never said.
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Semiconductor Cost Modeling Platform
Chip Cost Calculator
Model chip manufacturing costs across process nodes from 28nm to 2nm. Calculate GDPW, net die yield, wafer costs, CoWoS packaging, HBM memory pricing, and total chip cost with interactive parameter adjustments. Free alternative to paid die calculators.
Supply Chain Intelligence
Explore 64 semiconductor fabs worldwide with capacity data, track HBM market dynamics with qualification status and vendor market share, and visualize supply chain chokepoints from ASML lithography to Japanese photoresist monopolies.
Market Analysis
83 deep-dive reports covering TSMC wafer pricing, NVIDIA GPU economics, HBM memory shortages, export controls, and AI chip demand trends. Data-driven analysis with interactive cost models and structured data via our free API.
Semiconductor Manufacturing FAQ
- How much does it cost to make a semiconductor chip?
- Semiconductor manufacturing costs vary by process node: mature 28nm costs ~$3,000 per wafer, advanced 5nm costs ~$18,500, and cutting-edge 3nm costs ~$19,500. Per-chip cost depends on die size and yield — for example, an NVIDIA H100 (814mm² at TSMC 4N) costs approximately $3,320 to manufacture, while the B200 costs approximately $6,400.
- How many chips can you get from one wafer?
- The number of chips per wafer (Gross Dies Per Wafer or GDPW) depends on die size and wafer diameter. On a standard 300mm wafer: a small chip (50mm²) yields ~1,250 gross dies, a medium chip (200mm²) yields ~300, and a large chip like NVIDIA's H100 (814mm²) yields approximately 74 gross dies before yield loss.
- What is the most expensive chip to manufacture?
- As of 2026, the most expensive chips to manufacture are large AI accelerators. NVIDIA's B200 (Blackwell) at TSMC 4NP has an estimated manufacturing cost of ~$6,750, with HBM memory ($3,250) being the largest cost component. AMD's MI300X, using N5/N6 chiplets with advanced packaging, costs approximately $5,300 to manufacture.
- How many semiconductor fabs are there in the world?
- Silicon Analysts tracks 64 semiconductor fabrication facilities across 10 countries, operated by 16 companies including TSMC, Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC. New fabs are currently under construction or announced globally, including TSMC Arizona, JASM Kumamoto, and Intel Ohio.
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