Silicon Analysts Weekly for the week of 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-18: H100 SXM5 −3.6% WoW; Samsung HBM4 qualified at NVIDIA. A sourced, provenance-marked briefing on AI-chip supply-chain and pricing movements — HBM spot prices, wafer pricing, foundry and CoWoS capacity, per-chip bill-of-materials cost, and HBM qualification status — derived from public data and human-reviewed. Part of the Silicon Analysts semiconductor data layer.
The take
Samsung's HBM4 qualification at NVIDIA is the week's structural signal — it ends SK Hynix's sole-source position on Rubin and gives NVIDIA a second qualified supplier heading into volume ramp. H100 SXM5 spot pricing dropped 3.6% WoW, consistent with ongoing Hopper-to-Blackwell rotation that procurement teams are already pricing in.
What moved this week
SK Hynix HBM bit share — now 2026 ~60–65% (low-60s range) (was ~60–62% market share) (
source)
TSMC CoWoS lead time — ▲ now 52–78 weeks (was 52 to 78 weeks) (
source)
TSMC N3 utilization — ▲ now ~80–100% (sources disagree; one reports ~80%, another near 100%) (was 2H 2026 >100%) (
source)
TSMC CoWoS capacity — ▲ ~120,000–130,000 wafers per month (TSMC-only, end-2026 target); ~100,000–120,000 wpm… (
source)
TSMC SoIC hybrid-bonding yield — (
source)
Samsung HBM bit share — now 2026 ~25–30% (was ~25–35% (range across sources: 17–40%)) (
source)
H100 SXM5 est. sell price — −3.6% WoW
H100 SXM5 gross margin — −0.4pp WoW
Supply-chain & pricing signals
US-EU trade fracture accelerates securitization of semiconductor supply chains; export controls compound fragmentation risk — Transatlantic partnership breakdown reshapes semiconductor geopolitics. Export controls on equipment components (ASML, materials) and tariff uncertainty increase lead times (8-16 weeks) and inventory costs. Emerging risk of competing economic blocs fragmenting supply chains. (
Manila Times) · _In our data:_
supply chain storyline
Antitrust lawsuit alleges Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron coordinated DRAM supply restriction for 700% price inflation — Federal class action (Garciaguirre v. Samsung, June 2026) alleges the three companies controlling 90% of DRAM/HBM supply shifted capacity to inflate prices by ~700%. If successful, this creates regulatory risk to margins, potential damages, and increased antitrust scrutiny on memory supply coordination. (
Techtimes) · _In our data:_ SK Hynix — 14 developments tracked this quarter ·
SK Hynix storyline ·
HBM price by generation ·
HBM market share by vendor
HBM Supply Constraints Drive DRAM Price Inflation; 'RAMpocalypse' Persists Through 2026 — Zero-sum competition between HBM and commodity DRAM for manufacturing capacity creates structural price floor for DRAM/LPDDR5X. Every HBM unit diverts capacity for three DRAM modules, constraining smartphone, PC, and tablet margin recovery through 2026. (
Engadget) · _In our data:_ HBM — 8 developments tracked this quarter ·
HBM storyline ·
HBM price by generation ·
HBM market share by vendor
HBM watch
SK Hynix × NVIDIA Rubin (HBM4): now Sampling — paid samples delivered since September 2025 with no major issues reported and strong yield rates noted. (
source ·
timeline)
Samsung × NVIDIA Rubin (HBM4): now Qualified — quality testing completed by NVIDIA and AMD; formal supply expected to begin February 2026. (
source ·
timeline)
Samsung × NVIDIA (HBM4): now Qualified — Korea Economic Daily reports Samsung passed HBM4 qualification tests at both NVIDIA and AMD; shipments set to begin in the near future. (
source ·
timeline)
This week's analysis
AI engines are citing
Tool spotlight
Sources this week
Corrections
h200 — was 2175 → now 2400 (Model restatement, not market movement: HBM3e line re-based to the Aug-2026 contract level (~$17/GB, TrendForce 2026-08-13; owner ruling 202)
b100 — was 2900 → now 3250 (Model restatement, not market movement: HBM3e line re-based to the Aug-2026 contract level (~$17/GB, TrendForce 2026-08-13; owner ruling 202)
Full correction log
Sourced public intelligence, not insider data; status changes are human-reviewed before publication. Full timelines on the HBM Qualification Tracker.