First reported 2026-09-29 by TrendForce
TrendForce Lifts 2027 HBM ASP Forecast to +121%; HBM4 Stack Seen Doubling to ~$1,300
TrendForce, in a Sept. 29 report, raised its 2027 HBM blended average selling price forecast to a 121% year-on-year increase, citing persistent supply shortage, a rising mix of HBM4 and expanded HBM4E output in 2H27. Industry estimates cited by Seoul Economic Daily put a 12-high 36GB HBM4 stack at roughly $1,300 next year versus about $600 this year, while Micron stated on its FQ4 call that it has already committed more than 75% of FY2027 shipment volume at prices well above 2026 levels.
With all three suppliers effectively sold out into 2027 and HBM absorbing a third of DRAM wafer capacity, memory is becoming the dominant and least negotiable line in the AI accelerator BOM. Accelerator OEMs and hyperscalers face structurally higher per-unit memory cost through 2028 unless HBM4 yields and new fab capacity ramp faster than currently guided.
Chips affected — model the economics
This signal touches these AI accelerators. Open any in the cost calculator, pre-filled with its full BOM.
Sources
- Aju Press — Micron signals longer AI bonanza for Samsung, SK hynix
- Seoul Economic Daily — HBM Prices to More Than Double Next Year as Shortage Persists
- ChosunBiz — Micron forecasts tighter memory supply through 2028, lifting Korea chip outlook
- S-Journal — 삼성·SK하이닉스, 내년 이익구조 재편… 범용 D램 이어 HBM이 끈다
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