Nvidia Flags 'Extreme' Memory Costs Compressing Margins; Supply Meets Only 70% of Demand — HBM Shortage Structural, Not Transient
Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 earnings (revenue $96.2B, +106% YoY) included an explicit management warning that memory costs are 'extreme' and surpassed internal forecasts, forcing a gross margin guidance reset for the coming year; Nvidia simultaneously disclosed it can currently supply only 70% of demand from existing customers. A former Nvidia executive cited on CNBC corroborated the view that elevated memory pricing is structural, arguing Nvidia's own 70% FY2028 revenue growth projection — explicitly characterized by CFO Colette Kress as a 'supply-constrained outlook' — would be higher were HBM constraints not binding.
Nvidia's public 'extreme memory costs' language and explicit supply-gap disclosure (70% fill rate) confirm that HBM remains the single tightest bottleneck in the AI accelerator BOM — not CoWoS or wafer capacity — and that pricing pressure is passing through to system integrators and hyperscalers rather than being absorbed at the chip level. The Amazon deal (2M incremental Blackwell Ultra/Rubin GPUs for 2027–2028 delivery) and Anthropic's $45B Nscale compute commitment further validate that forward demand is accelerating faster than HBM supply can respond, reducing the probability of a near-term price correction and sustaining upward BOM cost pressure into at least 2028.
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Sources
- Business Insider — Nvidia earnings: Stock jumps as revenue expected to grow 70%, but 'extreme' memory costs pressure margins
- CNBC — Nvidia's 70% sales growth projection for 2028 wows analysts on earnings call
- CNBC — Rising memory price issue likely won't ease anytime soon: Former Nvidia Executive
- Fortune — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang eats dinner with someone 'and their stock price doubles the next day'
- CNBC — Nvidia jumps 6% in premarket trading after blockbuster earnings boost AI confidence
- The Guardian — Nvidia's quarterly revenue doubles to nearly $100bn as CEO declares 'golden age'
- TechCrunch — Amazon just tripled its order of Nvidia chips over 'surging demand'
- TechCrunch — Anthropic continues compute-gobbling streak in $45 billion deal with Nscale
- CNBC — U.S. considers fresh round of tariffs on semiconductors, report says
- Politico — Another potential headache for US data centers — Trump tariffs
- Asia Times — 100 signs of Silicon Shock
- SK Hynix Newsroom — SK hynix Indiana Fab Groundbreaking Ceremony
- SK Hynix Newsroom — SK hynix Presents a Full Lineup of Memory Solutions Optimized for AI Infrastructure at DTF 2026
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