Silicon Analysts Weekly for the week of 2026-06-29 to 2026-07-06: CoWoS-L hits 130k wpm; Nvidia Kyber delayed 12+ months to 2028. A sourced, provenance-marked briefing on AI-chip supply-chain and pricing movements — HBM spot prices, wafer pricing, foundry and CoWoS capacity, per-chip bill-of-materials cost, and HBM qualification status — derived from public data and human-reviewed. Part of the Silicon Analysts semiconductor data layer.
The take
CoWoS-L capacity is tracking 130k wafers/month in 2026 versus 105k at end-2025, with JPMorgan projecting 141k in 2027 — the tightest advanced-packaging constraint in the supply chain. Nvidia's Kyber NVL144 rack slip of 12-plus months to 2028 on circuit board challenges removes a near-term CoWoS demand pull-forward but opens space for competing architectures. Combined, the $518B Korea memory buildout and Micron's Japan expansion signal suppliers are betting capacity ahead of demand.
What moved this week
TSMC N16/N12/N28/N40 utilization — flat — 72% vs sub-80% (
source)
TSMC N7/N6 utilization — down — 65% vs below 70% (
source)
TSMC N5/N4P/N4NP utilization — up — 97% vs 2026-H1 100% booked for H1 2026 (
source)
TSMC N3E/N3P/N3B utilization — flat — ~100% vs ~98–100% (fully booked, new project kickoffs suspended) (
source)
TSMC CoWoS CoWoS ramp — up — 2026 CAGR of over 60% until at least 2026; more than quadruple from 2023 levels by end of 2026 vs 2026 56% YoY growth in 2026 (
source)
TSMC CoWoS CoWoS-L CoWoS capacity — up — 2026 130k wafers per month vs 105k wafers per month by end-2026, rising to 141k wafers per month in 2027 (per JPMorgan) (
source)
Supply-chain & pricing signals
Nvidia Kyber NVL144 delayed 12+ months to 2028 — circuit board manufacturing challenges push the Rubin Ultra rack architecture out of 2027, creating a gap in high-end AI infrastructure rollout. (
CNBC)
Samsung & SK Hynix announce combined $518B Korea fab buildout — 800 trillion won investment in Gwangju and surrounding areas, with 86+ trillion won in government co-investment, targets HBM and DRAM capacity through the 2030s. (
Reuters)
Micron reaches 21% HBM share; Japan backs $9.3B Hiroshima expansion — Tokyo's ¥1.5 trillion commitment accelerates capacity outside Korea and intensifies three-way supplier competition. (
TheStreet)
SK Hynix $29B US listing proceeds — record offering validates AI-driven HBM demand; analyst commentary flags elevated speculation risk around demand sustainability. (
Bloomberg)
Bernstein raises ASML price target 30%; stock up 123% YoY — upgrade cites sustained lithography demand from AI-driven logic and DRAM capacity expansion through 2026–2027. (
CNBC)
HBM watch
Samsung × NVIDIA (HBM3E): Qualified
→ Volume shipping — Jensen Huang confirmed all three Korean HBM suppliers passed NVIDIA qualification. (
TheLec ·
timeline)
SK Hynix × NVIDIA (HBM3E): —
→ Volume shipping — included in Jensen Huang's confirmation of all three Korean supplier qualifications. (
TheLec ·
timeline)
Foundry & capacity
TSMC N5/N4P/N4NP utilization — up to ~97%; H1 2026 fully booked.
TSMC N3E/N3P/N3B utilization — flat at ~100%; new project kickoffs suspended.
TSMC CoWoS-L capacity — up to 130k wafers/month in 2026 vs. 105k at end-2025; JPMorgan projects 141k wafers/month in 2027.
TSMC N7/N6 utilization — down to ~65%, remaining below the 70% threshold.
This week's analysis
AI engines are citing
Tool spotlight
Sources this week
Sourced public intelligence, not insider data; status changes are human-reviewed before publication. Full timelines on the HBM Qualification Tracker.