Data contracts / collecting

Forecast Track Record

Our OWN projections frozen monthly into write-once vintages and graded against outcomes — correct/partial/incorrect stays on the record. Ours are graded; third-party vintages are archived.

Coverage window

2026-09-30 → 2027-12-31 (60 rows; includes forward projections)

Computed from the backing series at page-render time — never typed by hand.

History honesty

Observations recorded as published; no archive backfill flag on this series.

Cadence

Monthly — our own scenario projections freeze into write-once vintage rows on the 2nd at 06:00 UTC (GitHub Actions); matured rows are graded in the same run. Between freezes the ledger does not move, by design.

Revision policy

Rows are immutable observations (freeze triggers). A wrong reading is corrected by appending a new row and registering the correction; review_status is the only mutable field.

Known gaps

Known-gaps review pending — the coverage boundaries above are computed and current, but the curator’s qualitative gaps assessment has not been written yet. We state that rather than inventing one.

Access

Fully open

API: /api/v1/track-record · MCP: get_track_record

Machine-readable

/api/v1/catalog/collect-track-record/contract