HBM Price per GB by Generation Scenario Analysis — Bear, Base & Bull Forecasts
Projects HBM3E and HBM4 contract pricing per GB through Q4 2027, driven by AI chip shipment growth, supplier capacity additions, and generational transition timing.
HBM Price per GB by Generation Scenario Analysis
ProAdjust assumptions to model Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios. 8 quarters projected from H2 2025.
Model: 1.0·5 assumptions·Last updated: Mar 2026
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact on Q4 2026 HBM4 when each assumption increases by 20%
| Assumption | Impact | Dir. |
|---|---|---|
| HBM Content per Next-Gen AI Chip (GB) | ±10.3% | |
| AI Chip Shipment Growth (YoY) | ±8.7% | |
| HBM Total Supply Growth (YoY bit output) | ±7.1% | |
| HBM4 Transition Speed | ±1.6% | |
| Price Elasticity (% price decline per % oversupply) | ±1.6% |
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Demand Drivers
AI Chip Shipment Growth (YoY)
40.0%
-10.0% 100.0%
HBM Content per Next-Gen AI Chip (GB)
288 GB
192 GB512 GB
Supply Factors
HBM Total Supply Growth (YoY bit output)
50.0%
10.0% 120.0%
HBM4 Transition Speed
40.0%
10.0% 80.0%
Pricing Dynamics
Price Elasticity (% price decline per % oversupply)
0.50 x
0.10 x1.50 x
Disclaimer: This projection is generated by a scenario model using publicly available analyst estimates. It is not a forecast and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Silicon Analysts makes no warranty as to accuracy. All assumptions and their sources are documented above.