HBM Price per GB by Generation Scenario Analysis — Bear, Base & Bull Forecasts
Projects HBM3E and HBM4 contract pricing per GB through Q4 2027 (Q2 and Q4 2027 targets), on a per-stack contract basis at a 12-Hi 36GB reference: settled 2026 per-stack prices, the 2027 renewal repricing, and a second-half step.
HBM Price per GB by Generation Scenario Analysis
ProAdjust assumptions to model Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios. 4 quarters projected from 2026 contract prices.
Revised 2026-10-04 (v1.1): Restated on a per-stack contract basis ($/GB at a 12-Hi 36GB stack) with 2027 targets only, replacing v1.0's oversupply-driven 2026 declines after 2026 renewals rose about 20% and 2027 repricing was reported. Forecasts frozen under earlier versions stay on the track record.
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact on Q4 2027 HBM4 when each assumption increases by 20%
| Assumption | Impact | Dir. |
|---|---|---|
| HBM4 2026 Contract Price (USD per 12-Hi 36GB stack) | ±19.9% | |
| HBM4 2027 Renewal (% vs 2026 per-stack price) | ±10.8% | |
| H2 2027 Step (% vs H1 2027) | ±1.1% | |
| HBM3E 2026 Contract Price (USD/GB, per-stack blend) | ±0% | |
| HBM3E 2027 Renewal (% vs 2026 blend) | ±0% |
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Pricing Dynamics
Disclaimer: This projection is generated by a scenario model using publicly available analyst estimates. It is not a forecast and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Silicon Analysts makes no warranty as to accuracy. All assumptions and their sources are documented above.