Silicon Analysts

Semiconductor Component Lead Times

Newest print Mar 2026Reviewed quarterlyCSV — newest observations; full series with a Pro keyAPIReference page: Foundry Allocation & Lead Times

Semiconductor Component Lead Times — latest readings

34 observations across 4 series, Q1 2022–Q1 2026.

Latest freely available reading for each series in Semiconductor Component Lead Times, with its basis, source and date
SeriesLatest (weeks)Source
CoWoS-SQ1 202628Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
HBM3EQ1 202620Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
TSMC N3Q1 202630Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
CoWoS-LQ1 202636Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026

Lead times in weeks for key AI chip supply chain components: CoWoS packaging, HBM memory by generation, TSMC leading-edge wafers. Tracks the bottleneck cycle from 2022–2026.

CoWoS-L: 36 weeks (Q1 2026), Silicon Analysts estimate Mar 2026

2022–2024: 22 earlier prints — full ledger is Pro

  1. 1Q4 2023 — Peak Shortage: CoWoS sold out through 2024; HBM3E booked through 2025; 50+ week lead times confirmed by TSMC.
  2. 2Q2 2024 — Capacity Relief Begins: TSMC CoWoS capacity additions; Samsung HBM qualification; lead times begin gradual decline from peak.
  3. 3Q1 2026 — B300/Rubin Transition: HBM4 transition begins; CoWoS-L remains tight for next-gen chips while CoWoS-S eases.
Press / analyst printSilicon Analysts model

Source: Silicon Analysts model, Industry estimates Q2 2024, DigiTimes Asia May 2024, TrendForce / SemiVision Jun 2024, Memory analyst consensus Jun 2024, TSMC investor day Dec 2024 and 3 more · Basis: booking-to-delivery · Anonymous view: the newest 3 observations per series (May 2024–Feb 2026); 22 earlier prints back to 2022 — full ledger is Pro.

Prints ledger

Prints ledger: every observation in this dataset with its period, value, basis, type, confidence and source
Note and copy
Q1 2026CoWoS-SOur model estimate2824–34 weeks
Q1 2026HBM3EOur model estimate2016–26 weeks
Q1 2026TSMC N3Our model estimate3026–36 weeks
Q1 2026CoWoS-LOur model estimate3630–42 weeks
Q4 2024CoWoS-S3228–38 weeks
Q4 2024HBM3E2824–36 weeks
Q4 2024TSMC N33630–44 weeks
Q4 2024CoWoS-L4438–52 weeks
Jun 2024CoWoS-S3834–44 weeks
Jun 2024HBM3E3026–36 weeks
Q2 2024TSMC N34438–52 weeks
Q2 2024CoWoS-L5244–60 weeks
CoWoS-S: 10 earlier prints, Q1 2022–Q2 2024 — full ledger is Pro
HBM3E: 8 earlier prints, Mar 2023–Q2 2024 — full ledger is Pro
TSMC N3: 3 earlier prints, Jun 2023–Q4 2023 — full ledger is Pro
CoWoS-L: 1 earlier print, Q4 2023 — full ledger is Pro
Showing the newest 3 observations per series (Q2 2024–Q1 2026); 22 earlier observations (Q1 2022–Q2 2024) are in Pro.

Provenance

Compiled from TSMC earnings calls, SK Hynix/Samsung investor days, DigiTimes Asia procurement reports, SemiAnalysis supply chain research, and industry procurement surveys. Lead times represent booking-to-delivery for new capacity orders, not existing LTAs.

Basis: booking-to-delivery

Booking-to-delivery for NEW capacity orders, not existing LTAs. This is a different quantity from manufacturing CYCLE TIME (wafer-start to wafer-out, see lib/constants/leadTimeData.ts) and from the foundry ALLOCATION QUEUE — do not compare across the three.

Sources

  • DigiTimes / SemiAnalysis (Mar 2022)
  • Industry reports (Dec 2022)
  • Interpolated between Q1 2022 (16wk) and Q2 2023 peak (40wk) (Mar 2026)
  • Interpolated (Mar 2026)
  • SK Hynix investor day 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • TSMC earnings Q2 2023 / SemiAnalysis (Jul 2023)
  • SemiAnalysis / DigiTimes Jun 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • TSMC Q2 2023 earnings (Jun 2023)
  • SK Hynix investor day Jun 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • Memory analyst estimates Aug 2023 (Aug 2023)
  • DigiTimes Aug 2023 (Aug 2023)
  • Goldman Sachs / SK Hynix Oct 2023 (Oct 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 2023 earnings / analyst consensus (Oct 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 earnings / multiple analyst reports Oct 2023 (Oct 2023)
  • Goldman Sachs semi report Dec 2023 (Dec 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 2023 earnings (Oct 2023)
  • Industry estimates (Dec 2023)
  • Multiple analyst reports Dec 2023 (Dec 2023)
  • DigiTimes Mar 2024 (Mar 2024)
  • TrendForce Mar 2024 (Mar 2024)
  • TrendForce Q2 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • Industry estimates Q2 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • DigiTimes / TrendForce (Jun 2024)
  • DigiTimes Asia May 2024 (May 2024)
  • TrendForce / SemiVision Jun 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • Memory analyst consensus Jun 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • TSMC investor day Dec 2024 (Dec 2024)
  • SemiVision / GlobalSemiResearch (Dec 2024)
  • TrendForce / DeepResearch (Dec 2024)
  • GlobalSemiResearch Dec 2024 (Dec 2024)

Our derivations

  • Silicon Analysts estimate Mar 2026 (Mar 2026)

Suggested citation

Silicon Analysts, "Semiconductor Component Lead Times", as of Mar 2026, https://siliconanalysts.com/market-data/component-lead-times, retrieved October 2, 2026.

API: /api/v1/market-data/component-lead-timesCSVLicence

Showing the newest 3 observations per series (Q2 2024–Q1 2026); 22 earlier observations (Q1 2022–Q2 2024) are in Pro.

Related Tools

Packaging ModelFab ExplorerSupply Chain Intelligence

Related Analysis

AI Chip Demand Surge Strains TSMC 3nm Supply

Read analysis →

The Great Bifurcation: 2025–2027 Semiconductor Trade War

Read analysis →
← All Market Data

Market intelligence on this data

All market intelligence →
CriticalMemoryOct 1, 2026

TrendForce Lifts 2027 HBM ASP Forecast to +121%; HBM4 Stack Seen Doubling to ~$1,300

HBM blended ASP: +121% YoY in 2027; 12-Hi 36GB HBM4 stack: ~$600 → ~$1,300 (+~117%); HBM share of industry DRAM wafer capacity: ~20% → ~30% by 2027

HighMemorySep 23, 2026

Samsung HBM4 Yield Climbs to ~80%, Wafer Starts Up 40% as HBM4 Pricing Projected +65%

Yield: <60% → ~80% (+20pp); Capacity: Samsung HBM wafer starts +40% (180k→250k wpm), HBM4-family mix 40%→80%; Price: HBM4 ASP +65% YoY; Share shift: Samsung 21%→33%, SK hynix 58%→50% (Counterpoint, Q1→Q2)

CriticalMemorySep 18, 2026

HBM3E Contract Prices Surge ~20% for 2026; Server DRAM Spikes 90-95% QoQ as Supply Crunch Intensifies

HBM3E 2026 contract price: ~+20% full-year vs. prior contracts (Samsung, SK Hynix per TrendForce); Server DRAM contract price QoQ: +90–95% Q1 2026, +58–63% Q2 2026, +13–18% Q3 2026 (TrendForce); DDR4 commodity spot: +249% Nov 2025 to Aug 2026 ($12.18 → $42.50). Est. BOM impact on H200/B200-class GPU: HBM cost line up ~+20% YoY on contracted volumes.

HighMemoryAug 29, 2026

SK Hynix Breaks Ground on Indiana HBM Fab: $4B US Domestic Capacity Confirmed

CapEx commitment: ~$4B USD; production ramp targeted 2029; near-term (2026–2028) HBM supply capacity unchanged.