Silicon Analysts

Semiconductor Component Lead Times

Newest print Mar 2026Reviewed quarterlyCSV — newest observations; full series with a Pro keyAPIReference page: Foundry Allocation & Lead Times

Semiconductor Component Lead Times — latest readings

34 observations across 4 series, Q1 2022–Q1 2026.

Latest freely available reading for each series in Semiconductor Component Lead Times, with its basis, source and date
SeriesLatest (weeks)Source
CoWoS-SQ1 202628Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
HBM3EQ1 202620Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
TSMC N3Q1 202630Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026
CoWoS-LQ1 202636Our model estimateSilicon Analysts modelMar 2026

Lead times in weeks for key AI chip supply chain components: CoWoS packaging, HBM memory by generation, TSMC leading-edge wafers. Tracks the bottleneck cycle from 2022–2026.

CoWoS-L: 36 weeks (Q1 2026), Silicon Analysts estimate Mar 2026

2022–2024: 22 earlier prints — full ledger is Pro

  1. 1Q4 2023 — Peak Shortage: CoWoS sold out through 2024; HBM3E booked through 2025; 50+ week lead times confirmed by TSMC.
  2. 2Q2 2024 — Capacity Relief Begins: TSMC CoWoS capacity additions; Samsung HBM qualification; lead times begin gradual decline from peak.
  3. 3Q1 2026 — B300/Rubin Transition: HBM4 transition begins; CoWoS-L remains tight for next-gen chips while CoWoS-S eases.
Press / analyst printSilicon Analysts model

Source: Silicon Analysts model, Industry estimates Q2 2024, DigiTimes Asia May 2024, TrendForce / SemiVision Jun 2024, Memory analyst consensus Jun 2024, TSMC investor day Dec 2024 and 3 more · Basis: booking-to-delivery · Anonymous view: the newest 3 observations per series (May 2024–Feb 2026); 22 earlier prints back to 2022 — full ledger is Pro.

Prints ledger

Prints ledger: every observation in this dataset with its period, value, basis, type, confidence and source
Note and copy
Q1 2026CoWoS-SOur model estimate2824–34 weeks
Q1 2026HBM3EOur model estimate2016–26 weeks
Q1 2026TSMC N3Our model estimate3026–36 weeks
Q1 2026CoWoS-LOur model estimate3630–42 weeks
Q4 2024CoWoS-S3228–38 weeks
Q4 2024HBM3E2824–36 weeks
Q4 2024TSMC N33630–44 weeks
Q4 2024CoWoS-L4438–52 weeks
Jun 2024CoWoS-S3834–44 weeks
Jun 2024HBM3E3026–36 weeks
Q2 2024TSMC N34438–52 weeks
Q2 2024CoWoS-L5244–60 weeks
CoWoS-S: 10 earlier prints, Q1 2022–Q2 2024 — full ledger is Pro
HBM3E: 8 earlier prints, Mar 2023–Q2 2024 — full ledger is Pro
TSMC N3: 3 earlier prints, Jun 2023–Q4 2023 — full ledger is Pro
CoWoS-L: 1 earlier print, Q4 2023 — full ledger is Pro
Showing the newest 3 observations per series (Q2 2024–Q1 2026); 22 earlier observations (Q1 2022–Q2 2024) are in Pro.

Provenance

Compiled from TSMC earnings calls, SK Hynix/Samsung investor days, DigiTimes Asia procurement reports, SemiAnalysis supply chain research, and industry procurement surveys. Lead times represent booking-to-delivery for new capacity orders, not existing LTAs.

Basis: booking-to-delivery

Booking-to-delivery for NEW capacity orders, not existing LTAs. This is a different quantity from manufacturing CYCLE TIME (wafer-start to wafer-out, see lib/constants/leadTimeData.ts) and from the foundry ALLOCATION QUEUE — do not compare across the three.

Sources

  • DigiTimes / SemiAnalysis (Mar 2022)
  • Industry reports (Dec 2022)
  • Interpolated between Q1 2022 (16wk) and Q2 2023 peak (40wk) (Mar 2026)
  • Interpolated (Mar 2026)
  • SK Hynix investor day 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • TSMC earnings Q2 2023 / SemiAnalysis (Jul 2023)
  • SemiAnalysis / DigiTimes Jun 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • TSMC Q2 2023 earnings (Jun 2023)
  • SK Hynix investor day Jun 2023 (Jun 2023)
  • Memory analyst estimates Aug 2023 (Aug 2023)
  • DigiTimes Aug 2023 (Aug 2023)
  • Goldman Sachs / SK Hynix Oct 2023 (Oct 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 2023 earnings / analyst consensus (Oct 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 earnings / multiple analyst reports Oct 2023 (Oct 2023)
  • Goldman Sachs semi report Dec 2023 (Dec 2023)
  • TSMC Q3 2023 earnings (Oct 2023)
  • Industry estimates (Dec 2023)
  • Multiple analyst reports Dec 2023 (Dec 2023)
  • DigiTimes Mar 2024 (Mar 2024)
  • TrendForce Mar 2024 (Mar 2024)
  • TrendForce Q2 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • Industry estimates Q2 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • DigiTimes / TrendForce (Jun 2024)
  • DigiTimes Asia May 2024 (May 2024)
  • TrendForce / SemiVision Jun 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • Memory analyst consensus Jun 2024 (Jun 2024)
  • TSMC investor day Dec 2024 (Dec 2024)
  • SemiVision / GlobalSemiResearch (Dec 2024)
  • TrendForce / DeepResearch (Dec 2024)
  • GlobalSemiResearch Dec 2024 (Dec 2024)

Our derivations

  • Silicon Analysts estimate Mar 2026 (Mar 2026)

Suggested citation

Silicon Analysts, "Semiconductor Component Lead Times", as of Mar 2026, https://siliconanalysts.com/market-data/component-lead-times, retrieved October 22, 2026.

API: /api/v1/market-data/component-lead-timesCSVLicence

Showing the newest 3 observations per series (Q2 2024–Q1 2026); 22 earlier observations (Q1 2022–Q2 2024) are in Pro.

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Market intelligence on this data

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HighMemoryOct 18, 2026

Samsung to Use TSMC 3nm for Base Dies of Nvidia Custom HBM

N/A (no unit pricing disclosed); TSMC 2026 CapEx maintained at $60–64B, new Tainan 3nm fab production 1H 2028, Arizona Fab 2 mass production Q3 2027

HighPackagingOct 16, 2026

Micron Opens Second Taiwan HBM Packaging Fab; All 2027 Output Already Sold Out

Capacity: new AATT2 HBM assembly/test line activated, with 100% of planned 2027 output contracted; Micron HBM capacity cited at ~60,000 wafers/month, roughly one-third of SK Hynix or Samsung

HighPackagingOct 11, 2026

GlobalFoundries Lands $2B TSMC Deal to Add First U.S. CoWoS Interposer Source

Capacity: ~$2B multi-year interposer supply agreement (five-year initial term), volume production from H1 2028; CoWoS capacity reported sold out through 2026; ~$400M/year, ~6% of GF 2025 revenue ($6.79B)

CriticalMemoryOct 7, 2026

Samsung HBM4 2027 Pricing Set to More Than Double

Samsung HBM blended ASP: +>100% YoY in 2027 (KB Securities); reported HBM4 asking price mid-to-high $4 per gigabit for 2027 vs ~$1.50 per gigabit for HBM3E (asking prices, not confirmed contracts); TrendForce: industry HBM blended ASP +121% YoY in 2027; HBM4 to be ~80% of Samsung HBM revenue in 2027 vs ~40% in 2026